Erode East, the 98th state assembly constituency, was created following the delimitation process in 2008. The constituency, which covers both urban and rural areas of Erode, has seen three assembly elections since 2011, with the most recent by-election taking place in 2023.
According to Section 151A of the Representation of the People Act, 1951, the Election Commission must fill vacancies in Parliament and state legislatures through by-elections within six months from the date the vacancy occurs, provided the remaining term is one year or more. With more than a year left in the DMK government’s term, political parties are now gearing up for a second by-election in Erode East within just two years.
Broaching the Buy-Election 2023:
While Congress was officially allowed to field a candidate, the DMK played a dominant role in driving the campaign. The ruling party likely saw the by-election as an opportunity to showcase the public's approval of their governance during the first year and a half of their tenure. Chief Minister M.K. Stalin, Deputy Chief Minister Udhayanidhi Stalin, along with other prominent DMK leaders such as Ministers Muthusamy and K.N. Nehru, all campaigned extensively for Congress candidate EVKS Elongavan.
The AIADMK, on the other hand, sought to leverage the by-election to challenge DMK's rule and highlight governance issues. This was the first by-election under EPS’s leadership, following a reconciliation between him and O. Panneerselvam, who had agreed to unite under BJP’s advice. Former AIADMK ministers, led by KA Sengottian, campaigned for their candidate, K.S. Thennarasu.
Apart from those two, Menaka Navaneethan from Naam Tamilar Katchi and S. Anand from Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam were among the contenders.
Unlike the notorious and famous “Thirumangalam Formula,” which involved large-scale distribution of money and gifts to voters during the by-election in Madurai on 2009, this time parties focused on different strategies, including confining people and showering them with money. Besides door-to-door campaigning, voters were reportedly given ₹3,000 to ₹5,000, as well as clothes, silver anklets, sarees, smartwatches, and special provisions like food and movie screenings. The phrase “money flows like water” aptly described the situation.
The result was a decisive victory for Congress, with Elongavan securing 110,156 votes with a margin of 66,233 votes over ADMK’s K.S. Thennarasu, who garnered 43,923 votes.
The Forthcoming Fray:
Since this is a seat Congress has held, the party will naturally seek to retain it. However, if the DMK decide to field a candidate, it will face a tough challenge, given that the constituency has traditionally been an AIADMK stronghold. In the 2021 election, Elongavan's son Thirumagan Evera had won by a slim margin of 8,904 votes, defeating AIADMK ally TMC(M) candidate Yuvaraja. Moreover, the constituency lies in the Kongu region, Minister V. Senthil Balaji who played a significant role in then 2023 by-election, would be a key factor in the battle. The DMK will use this opportunity to strengthen its position before the upcoming assembly elections and to showcase its alliance's cohesion to its rivals.
With AIADMK and BJP no longer aligned till date, the possibility of vote splitting theory cannot be ruled out. Additionally, the ongoing legal dispute over the AIADMK's "Two Leaves" symbol could allow O. Panneerselvam's faction to field a candidate. After the party’s poor performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the leadership has tried to reassure cadres that the poor results were part of a broader national narrative between Modi and Rahul. But, the party now faces the daunting task of proving its relevance in state politics. A victory in this by-election will be crucial for AIADMK to maintain its presence on the ground and build momentum for the 2026 elections.
Other political players except those two dravidian majors, also gearing up for the battle. The BJP, led by Annamalai, may engage in an aggressive campaign to challenge Senthil Balaji and the DMK, positioning themselves as the primary opposition to the ruling party, especially after their break with AIADMK. The BJP will likely aim for a strong second-place finish and will not concede ground to AIADMK. The recent exodus of party cadres across the state has raised questions about Naam Tamilar Katchi Chief Seeman's leadership, and the party must work to sustain the vote share it earned in the past elections. New player Vijay, the leader of Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam, may also test the waters by contesting this by-election. If the DMK fields a candidate, it could lead to a dramatic showdown, with Vijay positioning himself as a serious contender to the DMK.
The upcoming Erode East by-election will undoubtedly set to stir the political landscape in Tamil Nadu, creating ripples that will likely have a significant impact on the state’s political dynamics as the 2026 assembly elections draw nearer.